Market Trends and Affordability in King County Housing

Market Trends and Affordability in King County Housing

The fascinating thing about the King County house sales dataset is how many insights we can draw from asking questions that suit our narrative.

This analysis aims to determine the most likely housing type to be bought, rented, or leased in King County.

By extension, we seek to answer the following questions:

  • In which price range should real estate developers focus on building or renovating homes to meet current market demand?

  • What price point should real estate agents target when marketing 2-bedroom homes to attract more buyers and renters?

  • Which type of property and price range should investors consider for higher occupancy rates and potential returns?

We'd do this by examining multiple factors, including the distribution of house prices, the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, neighborhood characteristics, and property conditions.

To identify key trends and preferences, we comprehensively view the housing market dynamics using various visualizations, such as line charts, maps, and heat maps.

Findings:

  1. House Prices Distribution:

    • The distribution of house prices across different neighborhoods is right-skewed, indicating that there are fewer houses with high prices than low prices.

    • The price range with the highest number of houses is between $213,000 and $531,000.

    • The median house price is approximately $319,000, suggesting that this is the most common price point for houses in Kingston County.

    • This price point aligns with the middle-income market, making it a key area for potential buyers or renters.

  2. Bedrooms Distribution:

    • The majority of houses in the dataset have 3 - 4 bedrooms.

    • The frequency of houses decreases as the number of bedrooms increases or decreases from this point.

    • Very few houses have 1 - 2 or 5 - 7 bedrooms, indicating these configurations are less common in the housing market.

  3. Heatmap Analysis: View vs. Condition with Average House Prices

The heatmap shows the average house prices in King County based on different combinations of 'View' and 'Condition.' The views range from Excellent to No, while Conditions range from Very Good to Poor - Worse.

Price Distribution by View

  • Houses with an 'Excellent' view are premium properties and are likely to attract high-income buyers who prioritize superior views and are willing to invest significantly in their living environment.

  • While still relatively high, properties with a 'Good' view are slightly more accessible than those with an 'Excellent' view. They may attract upper-middle-class buyers or investors looking to balance quality and cost.

  • Properties with an 'Average' view represent a middle ground, attracting both buyers who want a reasonable balance of price and view quality and potential renters or leasers who seek a moderate living expense.

  • Houses with a 'Fair' view are very close to those with an 'Average' view. These properties might appeal to cost-conscious buyers who still want a decent view and renters or leasers looking for a reasonable compromise between cost and living conditions.

  • Properties with 'No View' are the most affordable and thus highly accessible to middle- to lower-income buyers. They are also attractive to renters or leasers looking for budget-friendly options.

Price Distribution by Property Condition

  • Houses in 'Very Good' condition are likely to attract buyers who prioritize quality and are willing to invest more for homes that require minimal immediate maintenance.

  • Properties in 'Average' condition represent a balance between affordability and quality, attracting both buyers and renters. Middle-income buyers who want a decent home without the high cost associated with 'Very Good' condition properties will find these homes appealing.

  • Homes in 'Fair to Badly Worn' condition are more affordable and likely appeal to budget-conscious buyers and renters. These properties may require some renovation or maintenance, attracting buyers who are looking for fixer-uppers or investment opportunities.

  • Properties in 'Poor to Worn Out' condition are the most affordable and likely to attract buyers with limited budgets or those interested in significant renovation projects.

Interpretation:

Combining these findings, we can infer the following about the most likely housing type to be bought, rented, or leased in King County:

Affordability and Market Demand

Affordable Housing Market:

  • The histogram shows a significant number of houses priced below $400,000.

  • Heatmaps reveal that these are predominantly properties with no view and lower conditions (poor to fair).

  • These properties are essential for middle-income buyers and renters, offering entry-level affordability but lower desirability.

Mid-Range Housing Market:

  • Most houses fall within the $400,000 to $800,000 range.

  • Heatmaps indicate these properties have a mix of average to good views and conditions, balancing price with quality.

  • This segment caters to a wide audience, including families and professionals seeking quality homes within a moderate budget.

Premium Housing Market:

  • A smaller number of houses are priced above $800,000, with a noticeable decline in frequency as prices rise.

  • Heatmaps highlight that these premium properties often have excellent views and very good conditions, justifying the high prices.

  • These homes are likely to be bought by high-income individuals who prioritize luxury and are willing to pay a premium for it.

Answers to Stakeholder Questions:

1. In which price range should real estate developers focus on building or renovating homes to meet current market demand?

Price Range: $400,000 - $800,000

Reasoning:

  • The histogram indicates that the majority of house sales fall within this range, suggesting high demand.

  • Homes in this range typically balance affordability and quality, appealing to a broad audience that includes middle-income families and professionals.

  • Renovating or building homes with 'Average' to 'Good' views and conditions within this price range can attract a significant portion of the market, meeting current demand trends observed in the mid-range segment.

2. What price point should real estate agents target when marketing 2-bedroom homes to attract more buyers and renters?

Price Point: Around $500,000

Reasoning:

  • Considering the data distribution, a price point around $500,000 is within the high-frequency range of house prices, making it an attractive option for buyers and renters looking for 2-bedroom homes.

  • This price point falls within the mid-range segment where most properties are sold, indicating a sweet spot for marketability.

  • Marketing 2-bedroom homes with 'Average' to 'Good' views and conditions at this price point can leverage the broad appeal of this segment, attracting both buyers and renters who seek affordable yet quality housing.

3. Which type of property and price range should investors consider for higher occupancy rates and potential returns?

Type of Property: Homes with 'Fair' to 'Average' views and conditions Price Range: $300,000 - $500,000

Reasoning:

  • Homes within the $300,000 to $500,000 range represent the affordable and lower-mid segments of the market. These homes are likely to have higher occupancy rates due to their accessibility to a larger demographic, including middle-income buyers and renters.

  • Properties with 'Fair' to 'Average' views and conditions in this price range are more affordable to purchase and maintain, yet still attractive enough to ensure steady demand.

  • Investing in this type of property can yield potential returns through rental income and value appreciation, as it caters to the broadest segment of the market, ensuring consistent occupancy and demand.

Disclaimer

This analysis is based on data from homes sold in King County between May 2014 and May 2015. Market conditions, property values, and demand trends may have changed since this period. Therefore, while the insights provided can offer valuable historical context, stakeholders should consider current market data and trends when making real estate decisions.

Tableau Viz: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/akintobi.usman.ajibola/viz/KingCountyHouseSales_17148293404440/KingCountyHouseSales

Data Source: Kaggle